Thinking, Fast and SlowMajor New York Times bestseller |
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We proposed that they used resemblance as a simplifying heuristic (roughly, a rule of thumb) to make a difficult judgment. The reliance on the heuristic caused predictable biases (systematic errors) in their predictions.
The article (which is reproduced in full at the end ofthis book) was titled “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” It described the simplifying shortcuts of intuitive thinking and explained some 20 biases as manifestations ...
Our research on judgment had far more effect on social science than we thought possible when we were working on it. Immediately after completing our review ofjudgment, we switched our attention to decision making under uncertainty.
We did not ask ourselves whether all intuitive judgments under uncertainty are produced by the heuristics we studied; it is now clear that they are not. In particular, the accurate intuitions of experts are better explained by the ...
Good intuitive judgments come to mind with the same immediacy as “doggie!” Unfortunately, professionals' intuitions do not all arise from true expertise. Many years ago I visited the chief investment officer of a large financial firm, ...
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LibraryThing Review
User Review - paven - LibraryThingA model for how we think. Either fast and lose or slow with the possibility of more correct decisions. Thinking fast we risk jumping to conclusions, not see the broad picture, have planning fallacies ... Read full review
LibraryThing Review
User Review - antao - LibraryThingDaniel Kahneman got the Nobel Prize some 20 years ago for research done since 1969 on human judgement and decision making. In 2011 he published the best-seller, "Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow", a ... Read full review